The study shows:<\/p>\n
- \n
- a\u00a0worsening of heatwaves\u00a0<\/strong><\/b>for all 571 cities<\/li>\n
- increasing drought conditions<\/strong><\/b>, particularlyin southern Europe<\/li>\n
- an increase in river flooding,\u00a0<\/strong><\/b>especially in north-western European cities<\/li>\n
- for the worst projections,\u00a0increases in all hazards for most European cities<\/strong><\/b><\/li>\n
- Cork, Derry, Waterford, Wrexham, Carlisle, Glasgow, Chester and Aberdeen<\/strong><\/b>could be the worst hit cities in the British Isles for river flooding<\/li>\n
- Even in the lowest case scenario,\u00a085% of UK cities with a river<\/strong><\/b>\u00a0are predicted to face increased river flooding<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Increase in ‘heatwave days’ for all European cities<\/h2>\n
Using projections from all available climate models (associated with the high emission scenario RCP8.5 which implies a 2.6\u00b0C to 4.8\u00b0C increase in global temperature), the team showed results for three possible futures which they called\u00a0the low, medium and high impact scenarios<\/strong><\/b>.<\/p>\n
The study shows that even the most optimistic of these – the low impact scenario \u2013 predicts\u00a0both the number of heatwave days and their maximum temperature will increase for all European cities.<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n
Southern European cities will see the biggest increases in the number of heatwave days, while central European cities will see the greatest increase in temperature during heatwaves – between 2\u00b0C to 7\u00b0C for the low scenario and 8\u00b0C to 14\u00b0C for the high scenario.<\/p>\n
For changes in droughts and floods, the cities which are affected depend on the scenario. For the low impact scenario, drought conditions only intensify in southern European cities while river flooding only worsens in north-western ones.<\/p>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/ceser\/files\/2018\/02\/Flood-news-grid.jpg\")
<\/a><\/h3>\nWorst flooding in the British Isles<\/h2>\n
The British Isles have some of the worst overall flood projections. Even in the most optimistic scenario, 85% of UK cities with a river \u2013 including London \u2013 are predicted to face increased river flooding, while for the high scenario,\u00a0half of UK cities could see at least a 50% increase on peak river flows<\/strong><\/b>. The cities predicted to be worst hit under the high impact scenario are\u00a0Cork, Derry, Waterford, Wrexham, Carlisle<\/strong><\/b>\u00a0and\u00a0Glasgow<\/strong><\/b>\u00a0and for the more optimistic, low impact, scenario are\u00a0Derry, Chester, Carlisle, Aberdeen and Glasgow<\/strong><\/b>.<\/p>\n
By 2051-2100, for the low impact scenario, cities in the south of Iberia, such as Malaga and Almeria, are expected to experience droughts more than twice as bad as in 1951-2000. While for the high impact scenario, 98% of European cities could see worse droughts in the future and cities in Southern Europe may experience droughts up to 14 times worse than today.<\/p>\n
\u201cAlthough southern European regions are adapted to cope with droughts, this level of change could be beyond breaking point,\u201d\u00a0Dr Selma Guerreiro<\/strong><\/b>, lead author, explains.<\/p>\n
\u201cFurthermore, most cities have considerable changes in more than one hazard which highlights\u00a0the substantial challenge cities face in managing climate risks<\/strong><\/b>.\u201d<\/p>\n
The implications of the study in terms of how Europe adapts to climate change are far-reaching, says\u00a0Professor Richard Dawson<\/strong><\/b>, co-author and lead investigator of the study.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe research highlights the urgent need to design and adapt our cities to cope with these future conditions.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe are already seeing at first hand the implications of extreme weather events in our capital cities. In Paris the Seine rose more than 4 metres above its normal water level.\u00a0 And as Cape Town prepares for its taps to run dry, this analysis highlights that such climate events are feasible in European cities too.\u201d<\/p>\n
80% increase in peak river flows<\/h2>\n
Of the European capitals, Dublin, Helsinki, Riga, Vilnius and Zagreb are likely to experience the most extreme rise in flooding. For the high impact scenario, several European cities could see more than 80% increases on peak river flows, including Santiago de Compostela in Spain, Cork and Waterford in Ireland, Braga and Barcelos in Portugal and Derry\/ Londonderry in the UK.<\/p>\n
Stockholm and Rome could see the greatest increase in number of heat-wave days while Prague and Vienna could see the greatest increase in maximum temperatures during heat-waves. Lisbon and Madrid are in the top capital cities for increases in frequency and magnitude of droughts, while Athens, Nicosia, Valleta and Sofia might experience the worst increases in both drought and heatwaves.<\/p>\n
The United Nation\u2019s\u00a0Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/strong><\/b>\u00a0(IPCC) has recognised the important role cites must play in tackling climate change and next month will hold its first\u00a0Cities and Climate Change Science Conference,<\/strong><\/b>\u00a0in Edmonton, Canada.<\/p>\n
\u201cA key objective for this conference,\u201d explains Professor Dawson, who sits on the\u00a0Scientific Steering Committee for the IPCC Conference<\/strong><\/b>, \u201cis to bring together and catalyse action from researchers, policy makers and industry to address the urgent issue of preparing our cities, their population, buildings and infrastructure for climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n
Dr\u00a0Guerreiro\u00a0<\/strong><\/b>adds:\u00a0\u00a0“Our analysis does not preclude the need for detailed climate change impact assessment for each city.\u00a0 But it does provide comparable information for different impacts and cities that can be used to prioritise national and European adaptation investments and guide more detailed adaptation studies.”<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Guerreiro S, Dawson RJ, Kilsby CG, Lewis E, Ford AC (2018)\u00a0\u2018Future heat-waves, drought and floods in 571 European cities\u2019.\u00a0Environmental Research Letters<\/em><\/strong><\/b>. 13: 034009.\u00a0DOI:\u00a0<\/strong><\/b>10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaaad3<\/p>\n
https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/aaaad3<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Landmark study shows the impact of flooding, droughts and heatwaves by 2050-2100 will exceed previous predictions. The research, by\u00a0Newcastle University, UK, has for the first time analysed changes in flooding, droughts and heatwaves for all European cities using all climate … Continue reading
- increasing drought conditions<\/strong><\/b>, particularlyin southern Europe<\/li>\n