Prior to the election, we can expect to see an increasing number of election forecasts, looking to predict the vote share and seat numbers of each party. An interesting paper looking back at the polls and vote in Britain can be found here.<\/a>\u00a0This morning, the Polling Observatory team made their first vote share forecast ahead of next year’s election. The full details can be found here<\/a>, but their forecast is as follows:<\/p>\n Conservatives: 36.1%<\/p>\n Labour: 36.5%<\/p>\n Liberal Democrats: 10.1%<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The prediction can only go so far at the moment. They have yet to make a seat forecast (this will come soon), but this will depend upon the Liberal Democrats’ ability to win seats in their strongest local areas with a dwindling national poll<\/a>, and UKIP’s ability to hold on to its high vote share over the coming 12 months<\/a>. Many outcomes remain possible, but each would be unprecedented in some shape or form. Labour remains best placed due to the workings of the electoral system<\/a>, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out.<\/p>\n What is certain is that there will be changes of opinion and many twists and turns over the coming 12 months. For now, I’ll leave you with this from the Telegraph.<\/p>\n
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