{"id":145,"date":"2014-07-27T22:24:09","date_gmt":"2014-07-27T21:24:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/?p=145"},"modified":"2014-07-27T22:30:39","modified_gmt":"2014-07-27T21:30:39","slug":"constituency-odds-an-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/2014\/07\/27\/constituency-odds-an-update\/","title":{"rendered":"Constituency odds – an update"},"content":{"rendered":"

Back in April, I blogged about Ladbrokes’ decision to open betting markets on individual constituencies ahead of next year’s general election.<\/a> I particularly pointed out four constituencies \u00a0that might be especially interesting: Bath, Brighton Pavilion, Redcar and Wells. In this post, I’d like to give an update to see if there’s been much change in the last three months.<\/p>\n

Bath<\/strong><\/p>\n

This should be an easy win for the Liberal Democrats, but given that the sitting MP since 1992 (Don Foster) is stepping down, the Conservatives might just have a chance.<\/p>\n

April<\/span>: Liberal Democrats 1\/16; Conservatives 6\/1; Labour 100\/1; UKIP 100\/1<\/p>\n

July<\/span>: Liberal Democrats 1\/10; Conservatives 5\/1; UKIP 33\/1; Labour 100\/1<\/p>\n

Brighton Pavilion<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Green Party’s first ever MP, Caroline Lucas, will defend this seat next year. Labour will be hopeful of winning it back.<\/p>\n

April<\/span>: Greens evens; Labour evens; Conservatives 10\/1; Liberal Democrats 33\/1; UKIP 50\/1<\/p>\n

July<\/span>: Greens 10\/11; Labour 10\/11; Conservatives 25\/1; Liberal Democrats 100\/1; UKIP 100\/1<\/p>\n

Redcar<\/strong><\/p>\n

The biggest swing of the 2010 general election, from Labour to the Liberal Democrats. Labour can point to individual circumstances in the seat in 2010 (plant closure) and to the Liberal Democrat MP stepping down as signs of a potential victory.<\/p>\n

April<\/span>: Labour 4\/6; Liberal Democrats 11\/10; UKIP 66\/1; \u00a0Conservatives 100\/1<\/p>\n

July<\/span>: Labour 2\/7; Liberal Democrats 5\/2; UKIP 25\/1; Conservatives 100\/1<\/p>\n

Wells<\/strong><\/p>\n

A small majority for the Liberal Democrats (just 800) and a constituency heavily affected by the floods a few months ago.<\/p>\n

April<\/span>: Conservatives 1\/3; Liberal Democrats 2\/1; UKIP 50\/1; Labour 100\/1<\/p>\n

July<\/span>: Conservatives 2\/7; Liberal Democrats 5\/2; UKIP 50\/1; Labour 100\/1<\/p>\n

So, any real change? In Redcar, yes. Ian Swales MP’s announcement that he is stepping down seems to have had an effect on the market, and made a Labour victory more likely. No real change in Brighton or Wells, but the odds have tightened slightly on a Conservative gain in Bath. Still very unlikely, but let’s see.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Back in April, I blogged about Ladbrokes’ decision to open betting markets on individual constituencies ahead of next year’s general election. I particularly pointed out four constituencies \u00a0that might be especially interesting: Bath, Brighton Pavilion, Redcar and Wells. In this post, I’d like to give an update to see if there’s been much change in … Continue reading Constituency odds – an update<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5321,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[54,13,29,52,53,45,9],"class_list":["post-145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-british-politics","tag-54","tag-british-politics-2","tag-conservatives","tag-elections","tag-general-election","tag-labour","tag-liberal-democrats"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5321"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=145"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":150,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/145\/revisions\/150"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}