{"id":201,"date":"2014-09-01T13:20:31","date_gmt":"2014-09-01T12:20:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/?p=201"},"modified":"2014-09-01T13:20:31","modified_gmt":"2014-09-01T12:20:31","slug":"liberal-democrats-forecast-2015-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/2014\/09\/01\/liberal-democrats-forecast-2015-losses\/","title":{"rendered":"Liberal Democrats’ forecast 2015 losses"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Election Forecast<\/a> team have uploaded their individual seat forecasts for next year’s general election. They forecast that the Liberal Democrats have a 50% or great probability of losing the following 36 seats (ordered in probability of defeat):<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Brent Central<\/li>\n
  2. Norwich South<\/li>\n
  3. Bradford East<\/li>\n
  4. Manchester Withington<\/li>\n
  5. Solihull<\/li>\n
  6. Burnley North West<\/li>\n
  7. Somerton and Frome<\/li>\n
  8. Taunton Deane<\/li>\n
  9. Redcar<\/li>\n
  10. Chippenham<\/li>\n
  11. Argyll and Bute<\/li>\n
  12. Birmingham Yardley<\/li>\n
  13. St Austell & Newquay<\/li>\n
  14. Wells<\/li>\n
  15. Edinburgh West<\/li>\n
  16. Mid Dorset and North Poole<\/li>\n
  17. Gordon<\/li>\n
  18. Hornsey and Wood Green<\/li>\n
  19. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine<\/li>\n
  20. Portsmouth South<\/li>\n
  21. Southport<\/li>\n
  22. Bristol West<\/li>\n
  23. Brecon and Radnorshire<\/li>\n
  24. North Devon<\/li>\n
  25. Cheltenham<\/li>\n
  26. East Dunbartonshire<\/li>\n
  27. Kingston and Surbiton<\/li>\n
  28. Cardiff Central<\/li>\n
  29. Berwick-upon-Tweed<\/li>\n
  30. St Ives<\/li>\n
  31. North Cornwall<\/li>\n
  32. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk<\/li>\n
  33. Colchester<\/li>\n
  34. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross<\/li>\n
  35. Eastbourne<\/li>\n
  36. Carshalton and Wallington<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Of those losses, 21 are predicted to fall to the Conservatives, 12 are predicted to fall to Labour, and 3 to the Scottish National Party. See the full results here<\/a>. The forecast predicts no gains for the Liberal Democrats. For a look at what seats they might have a chance of winning, see the post I wrote a couple of months ago<\/a>.<\/p>\n

    The overall seat prediction by the forecasting team leaves the Liberal Democrats with 23 seats, which would see a certain Lib Dem blogger running down Whitehall without any clothes on.\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The Election Forecast team have uploaded their individual seat forecasts for next year’s general election. They forecast that the Liberal Democrats have a 50% or great probability of losing the following 36 seats (ordered in probability of defeat):<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5321,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[70,54,75,52,53,45,74,9,76],"class_list":["post-201","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-british-politics","tag-70","tag-54","tag-conservative","tag-elections","tag-general-election","tag-labour","tag-lib-dems","tag-liberal-democrats","tag-snp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5321"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=201"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":202,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/201\/revisions\/202"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=201"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=201"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/craigjohnson1\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=201"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}