This afternoon, Michael Ashcroft addressed the Conservative Party Conference, providing a host of individual seat polls of interest to them. Of course, many of these will also be of interest to the Liberal Democrats. The polls were each of 1000 people during the July-September period. They should be noted as a snapshot of the time, and not a snapshot of next May.<\/p>\n
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A few thoughts. UKIP are having an effect in a lot of these seats. It is reasonable to assume that in Watford, Cheadle, Cornwall North, St Ives and Torbay that the Conservatives would be ahead rather than being behind or on level terms with the Liberal Democrats. How this changes (or not) before May 2015 will be very interesting. In particular, St Austell & Newquay will be fascinating.<\/p>\n
As expected, the Liberal Democrats seem to have lost large shares of support in certain areas and maintained support in others. The argument that the Liberal Democrats need to prioritise fighting strong campaigns where they have local support and an organisational base<\/a> seems as strong as ever.<\/p>\n Ashcroft offers his own thoughts here<\/a>. In particular, he notes:<\/p>\n In seats contested in England between the Lib Dems and the Tories, including Lib Dem majorities of up to 8%, I found the two parties level, with 32% of the vote each \u2013 a rather concerning result for the Conservatives, who need to win a large number of Lib Dem seats to balance those it may lose to Labour. This represents an overall swing in these seats of just 2% to the Conservatives,but with an intriguing range of results from one constituency to the next.<\/p>\n This study includes only two Conservative-held seats \u2013 those in which I found the smallest Tory majorities among the selection Lib Dem targets I polled in June. Of these, Oxford West & Abingdon still looks reasonably comfortable for the Conservatives, with an eight-point margin over the Lib Dems, but Watford remains a three-way contest in which Labour now have the edge over the Tories.<\/p>\n The results in the Tory target seats are fascinating, and bear no relation to the size of the Lib Dem majorities. If these figures were repeated at the election the Conservatives would be looking at a recount in Torbay, the most ambitious seat on the list, and would gain Berwick Upon Tweed and Taunton Deane, the second and third. They would win Chippenham and Somerton & Frome with swings of 10% and 8.5% respectively, and do enough to bag Solihull, Wells, Mid Dorset & North Poole and \u2013 just, with two points separating all\u00a0four<\/em>\u00a0parties \u2013 St Austell & Newquay. The modest 3% swing in North Cornwall would mean another recount.<\/p>\n But at the other end of the scale I found swings\u00a0from<\/em>\u00a0the Conservatives\u00a0to\u00a0<\/em>the Lib Dems in Cheadle, Eastleigh, Sutton & Cheam, and most spectacularly, Eastbourne. In the Tory-Lib Dem battleground as a whole, I found 13% of Conservatives, 18% of Labour supporters and 9% of UKIP supporters switching to the Lib Dems when asked to think about their own constituency and the candidates likely to stand there, rather than simply which party they would vote for in an election tomorrow. In all the seats surveyed, the Lib Dem vote rose significantly between these two questions.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n The polls are shown below.<\/p>\n Watford<\/strong><\/p>\n LAB – 29% (+2)<\/p>\n CON – 27% (-8)<\/p>\n LDEM – 25% (-7)<\/p>\n UKIP – 14% (+12)<\/p>\n Labour GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Cheadle<\/strong><\/p>\n LDEM – 34% (-13)<\/p>\n CON – 30% (-11)<\/p>\n LAB – 19% (+10)<\/p>\n UKIP – 13% (+10)<\/p>\n Liberal Democrat HOLD<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Berwick upon Tweed<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 33% (-4)<\/p>\n LDEM – 30% (-14)<\/p>\n UKIP – 17% (+14)<\/p>\n LAB – 16% (+3)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Chippenham<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 39% (-2)<\/p>\n LDEM – 24% (-22)<\/p>\n UKIP – 16% (+13)<\/p>\n LAB – 14% (+7)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Eastbourne<\/strong><\/p>\n LDEM – 46% (-2)<\/p>\n CON – 25% (-16)<\/p>\n UKIP – 18% (+15)<\/p>\n LAB – 7% (+2)<\/p>\n Liberal Democrat HOLD.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Oxford West & Abingdon<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 38% (-4)<\/p>\n LDEM – 30% (-12)<\/p>\n LAB – 18% (+7)<\/p>\n UKIP – 9% (+6)<\/p>\n Conservative HOLD.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Eastleigh<\/strong><\/p>\n LDEM – 40% (+8)<\/p>\n CON – 25% (-14)<\/p>\n UKIP – 21% (+17)<\/p>\n LAB – 12% (+2)<\/p>\n Liberal Democrat HOLD.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Mid Dorest & North Poole<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 38% (-7)<\/p>\n LDEM – 32% (-13)<\/p>\n UKIP – 19% (+14)<\/p>\n LAB – 8% (-13)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Solihull<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 37% (-6)<\/p>\n LDEM – 28% (-15)<\/p>\n UKIP – 16% (+14)<\/p>\n LAB – 12% (+3)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Cornwall North<\/strong><\/p>\n LDEM – 33% (-15)<\/p>\n CON – 33% (-9)<\/p>\n UKIP – 20% (+15)<\/p>\n LAB – 10% (+6)<\/p>\n TIE.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Somerton & Frome<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 41% (-4)<\/p>\n LDEM – 27% (-21)<\/p>\n UKIP – 17% (+14)<\/p>\n LAB – 9% (+5)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n St Austell & Newquay<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 27% (-13)<\/p>\n LDEM – 26% (-17)<\/p>\n UKIP – 25% (+21)<\/p>\n LAB – 13% (+6)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n St Ives<\/strong><\/p>\n LDEM – 32% (-11)<\/p>\n CON – 31% (-8)<\/p>\n UKIP – 18% (+12)<\/p>\n LAB – 11% (+3)<\/p>\n Liberal Democrat HOLD.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Sutton & Cheam<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong>LDEM – 45% (-1)<\/p>\n CON – 27% (-15)<\/p>\n UKIP – 14% (+12)<\/p>\n LAB – 11% (+4)<\/p>\n Liberal Democrat HOLD.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Taunton Deane<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 34% (-8)<\/p>\n LDEM – 30% (-19)<\/p>\n UKIP – 15% (+11)<\/p>\n LAB – 14% (+9)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Wells<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 35% (-8)<\/p>\n LDEM – 28% (-16)<\/p>\n UKIP – 16% (+13)<\/p>\n LAB – 13% (+5)<\/p>\n Conservative GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Torbay<\/strong><\/p>\n CON – 30% (-9)<\/p>\n LDEM – 30% (-17)<\/p>\n UKIP – 21% (+16)<\/p>\n LAB – 15% (+8)<\/p>\n TIE.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Bermondsey & Old Southwark<\/strong><\/p>\n LDEM – 36% (-12)<\/p>\n LAB – 35% (+6)<\/p>\n CON – 14% (-3)<\/p>\n UKIP – 9% (+9)<\/p>\n Liberal Democrat HOLD.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Cardiff Central<\/strong><\/p>\n LAB – 36% (+7)<\/p>\n LDEM – 24% (-17)<\/p>\n CON – 17% (=)<\/p>\n UKIP – 9% (+7)<\/p>\n Labour GAIN.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Hornsey & Wood Green<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/strong>LAB – 43% (+9)<\/p>\n LDEM – 30% (-17)<\/p>\n CON – 14% (-3)<\/p>\n Labour GAIN.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" This afternoon, Michael Ashcroft addressed the Conservative Party Conference, providing a host of individual seat polls of interest to them. Of course, many of these will also be of interest to the Liberal Democrats. The polls were each of 1000 people during the July-September period. They should be noted as a snapshot of the time, … Continue reading Michael Ashcroft Polling on Liberal Democrat marginals<\/span>