I know this is a very important question for applicants. Unfortunately the short, unhelpful answer is “it depends”. I say something about this in the email you get from us when we receive your application. But let me try a longer answer…

My selection process operates under two important constraints. The first is that I have a limited number of places, and I can’t give out a set of offers that would lead to over-recruitment. So, things are competitive: it matters how many people are applying, and how strong their applications are. This year, by the way, our applications are up (and for P+E and GEUS, massively so).

The second constraint is that everyone who applies before the UCAS deadline must receive equal consideration: I have to treat all these applicants fairly. Now, please don’t get the sense that this feels like a constraint for me at all – I’m not itching to treat you unfairly, until some dastardly rule stops me. Fairness is my day job, and it should be the first rule of all social institutions. But it does mean I give out offers later than I might otherwise. Suppose I offer a place to a reasonably strong candidate – good predicted grades, decent personal statement – in late November. I am bound by fairness to be sure I can make the same offer to a candidate of equal merit who applies right on the UCAS deadline.

Combine these two constraints, and you can see why I can’t give everyone an offer straight away. I have to be cautious and be sure I only give out offers that I could give, fairly, to all applicants of equal merit. The closer you are to my likely cut-off point, and the stronger the competition, the longer you might have to wait (of course, it also matters when you apply, how long it takes me to get to your form, and how quickly we process the offer onto UCAS).

So, the final decisions for some will have to wait until after the UCAS deadline: it’s only then that I get an accurate picture of the whole field. The latest you’ll hear from us will be the start of February. Every decision I can fairly and safely make before then, I will.