{"id":328,"date":"2022-08-23T13:18:42","date_gmt":"2022-08-23T12:18:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/?p=328"},"modified":"2022-08-29T15:47:38","modified_gmt":"2022-08-29T14:47:38","slug":"hating-to-have-been-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/2022\/08\/23\/hating-to-have-been-right\/","title":{"rendered":"Hating to have been right"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In the slightly less frantic period of university activity that precedes my pending retirement and actually offers time to think, I am prompted to look back at some of the predictions I made about the pandemic and the UK\u2019s social and economic future well over a year ago \u2013 notably, that post-pandemic economic contraction would mean that \u2018the United Kingdom is over as a desirable place to live and work, for a very long time, except for those living in gated communities or behind castle walls\u2019.  Although the contraction does not (yet) approximate the \u2018post-Soviet style economic and health collapse\u2019 that I anticipated in January 2021, it was reported on 22 August that the UK economy contracted by 11 percent<\/em> in 2020<\/a> \u2013 the largest year-on-year decline in GDP since 1709.  Please note that this reflects only the first year of the pandemic, and neither the short-lived post-lockdown recovery nor the cataclysmic geopolitical events of 2022.  (Proponents of \u2018degrowth\u2019<\/a> might nevertheless reflect on how well 2020 turned out, and for whom.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ongoing uncertainties and supply chain disruptions associated with the pandemic have now been compounded by the inflationary effects of Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine; its weaponisation of natural gas trade and, at least temporarily, further disruption of agricultural exports; and a domestic political vacuum that sees the probable next prime minister characterised (accurately) as on \u2018holiday from reality\u2019<\/a> by a senior Cabinet colleague.\u00a0 Average real (inflation adjusted) earnings in the second quarter of 2022 fell at a record rate<\/a>, whilst one forecast was that under existing institutional arrangements, the \u2018capped\u2019 amount a British household will pay for energy could rise to more than \u00a36,000<\/a> by April 2023, from less than a third of that in August 2022. \u00a0\u00a0This will be a minor inconvenience for Mr. and Mrs. Range Rover, but on one estimate \u2013 based on a lower assumed energy price than what is in the latest forecasts at this writing – 45 million people will experience \u2018fuel poverty\u2019<\/a> on a standard definition. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These impacts are, of course, attributable not only to the pandemic but also to geopolitics, and it is plausible to argue that the impacts I\u2019ve described would be much less severe had the Russian invasion not taken place.\u00a0 But the world is as it is, not as we might wish it to be.\u00a0 Further, I was wrong \u2013 I am thoroughly delighted to say \u2013 about some things, especially the prospects for what turned out to be a relatively successful UK vaccine rollout.\u00a0 Nevertheless, according to The Economist\u2019<\/em>s (paywalled) tracking of excess deaths from all causes<\/a> \u2013 the most meaningful measure of successful pandemic response \u2013 Britain\u2019s figure of 253 excess deaths per 100,000 people between the start of the pandemic and 23 August is comparable to Chile, Guatemala and Lebanon; almost twice as high as Sweden; and roughly three times as high as Norway, Denmark and Canada.\u00a0 So the glass is definitely only half full, and the British figure may well deteriorate further against the background of an already fragile and under-resourced health system; a social safety net stretched to the breaking point; and a political leadership seemingly bent on emulating the captain of the Titanic in its response to the economic emergency.\u00a0 Those castle walls will look awfully attractive to those for whom they are available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the slightly less frantic period of university activity that precedes my pending retirement and actually offers time to think, I am prompted to look back at some of the predictions I made about the pandemic and the UK\u2019s social … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1834,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[35,74,36,48,72,75,15,40,73],"class_list":["post-328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorised","tag-coronavirus","tag-cost-of-living","tag-covid-19","tag-economic-collapse","tag-economic-emergency","tag-energy-prices","tag-health-equity","tag-inequality","tag-inflation"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1834"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=328"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":339,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/328\/revisions\/339"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.ncl.ac.uk\/theodoreschrecker\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}