For the Liberal Democrats, next year’s general election is all about damage limitation. As Philip Cowley said in June:
As outlined in further detail here, the priority for the Liberal Democrats is no longer picking up 20% of the vote and second place in every constituency in the land. In the short term at least, there is no chance of that happening. The priority is to maintain support in those seats where they have MPs and resources.
The question at the top of the page might then seem a bit odd. What chance of a Liberal Democrat gain in 2015? Last month, Ladbrokes outlined five seats that they might have a chance of gaining: Montgomeryshire, Watford, Oxford West & Abingdon, Ashfield, and Maidstone & The Weald. I’d like to focus on one of them in particular (Oxford West & Abingdon), then add a couple more of my own: Harrogate & Knaresborough, and Winchester.
The reason for looking at these three seats is two-fold. First, if the Lib Dems are going to gain any seats in 2015, a good place to start is to look at seats they held in 2005 but lost in 2010. That narrows the list down to 13 (Camborne & Redruth, Chesterfield; Cornwall South East; Harrogate & Knaresborough; Hereford & Herefordshire South; Montgomeryshire; Newton Abbot; Oxford West & Abingdon; Richmond Park; Romsey & Southampton North; Truro & Falmouth; Winchester; York Outer). Second, from this list, where are the party strongest organisationally? Based on reports to the Electoral Commission, that would appear to be Harrogate & Knaresborough, Oxford West & Abingdon, and Winchester. In this post, I’ll look at local election results since 2010, and then organisational strength since 2010.
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Odds to win seat in 2015 (from Ladbrokes)
Conservatives 1/16; Liberal Democrats 7/1
Swing needed: 1%
Constituency result (vote)
2005: Liberal Democrat 52.2%; Conservative 36.0%; Others 11.8%
2010: Conservative 45.7%; Liberal Democrat 43.8%; Others 10.5%
Council results (seats)
2006: Conservative 27; Liberal Democrat 22; Others 5
2010: Conservative 28; Liberal Democrat 22; Others 4
2014: Conservative 34; Liberal Democrat 15; Others 5
Organisational data
| Constituency | Mship 2012 | Mship 2011 | Mship 2010 | Mship 2009 |
| Harrogate & Knaresborough | 258 | 266 | 372 | 417 |
| Income 13 | Expenditure 13 | Income 12 | Expenditure 12 | |
| £28,888.00 | £32,483.00 | £25,520.00 | £23,778.00 | |
| Income 11 | Expenditure 11 | Income 10 | Expenditure 10 | |
| £28,005.00 | £22,640.00 | £67,754.00 | £85,303.00 |
A big swing from the Liberal Democrats (9.1%) meant that the Conservatives gained this seat in 2010. Just a 1% swing needed in 2015, but the Conservatives have done well in local elections since 2010., and the local Liberal Democrat constituency party do not appear to have been doing well enough to buck the trend with strong local organisation.
Oxford West & Abingdon
Odds to win seat in 2015 (from Ladbrokes)
Conservatives 1/4; Liberal Democrats 11/4
Swing needed: 0.2%
Constituency result (vote)
2005: Liberal Democrat 46.1%; Conservative 32,7%; Others 21.2%
2010: Conservative 42.3%; Liberal Democrat 42.0%; Others 15.7%
Organisational data
| Constituency | Mship 2012 | Mship 2011 | Mship 2010 | Mship 2009 |
| Oxford West & Abingdon | 391 | 405 | 463 | 451 |
| Income 13 | Expenditure 13 | Income 12 | Expenditure 12 | |
| £63,428.08 | £62,596.58 | £47,878.22 | £56,347.18 | |
| Income 11 | Expenditure 11 | Income 10 | Expenditure 10 | |
| £39,460.91 | £54,408.43 | £76,932.03 | £50,914.70 |
Council results are a bit trickier as the constituency is split across different areas, but the Liberal Democrats have lost seats on Oxford City Council to Labour, whilst they have gained a seat on Oxfordshire County Council. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have lost seats on Oxfordshire County Council. My knowledge of the area is not good enough to tell you which of these seats fell in the Oxford West & Abingdon parliamentary constituency boundary. Organisationally, they’ve maintained their membership, and are raising funds to suggest that they can mount a strong campaign to challenge the sitting Conservative.
Winchester
Odds to win seat in 2015 (from Ladbrokes)
Conservatives 1/6; Liberal Democrats 4/1
Swing needed: 2.7%
Constituency result (vote)
2005: Liberal Democrat 50.0%; Conservative 37.3%; Others 12.7%
2010: Conservative 48.5%; Liberal Democrat 43.1%; Others 8.4%
Council results (seats)
2010: Liberal Democrats 29; Conservatives 26; Others 2
2014: Conservatives 28; Liberal Democrats 25; Others 4
Organisational data
| Constituency | Mship 2012 | Mship 2011 | Mship 2010 | Mship 2009 |
| Winchester | 364 | 390 | 485 | 480 |
| Income 13 | Expenditure 13 | Income 12 | Expenditure 12 | |
| £56,033.00 | £54,392.00 | £45,990.00 | £49,638.00 | |
| Income 11 | Expenditure 11 | Income 10 | Expenditure 10 | |
| £45,879.00 | £44,429.00 | £52,160.00 | £58,372.00 |
Not much change on the council since 2010 (again, this does not translate directly into the parliamentary constituency but gives a reasonable guide). Organisationally, Winchester have been one of the strongest local parties that the Liberal Democrats have, and they should be able to put together a strong campaign in 2015. However, whether it will be enough to remove the Conservative is another matter.
Conclusion: any chance?
As noted earlier, Ladbrokes outlined five potential gains, and I have added another two. The Liberal Democrats are not favourites to win any of them and if they gain just one of these then they’d be happy. However, in Oxford West & Abingdon and in Winchester, the Liberal Democrats are at least in a reasonable position to mount a strong campaign and, if reports are to be believed, they are looking at some of these seats as targets.
The main target party is the Conservatives. Of the 13 seats the Liberal Democrats lost in 2010, 12 of them were lost to the Conservatives. It’ll be interesting to see how this continues over the next few months.