I was at Labour Party Conference this week. Many journalists and commentators have noted how flat the conference felt, particularly for a party that will hope to be in government in just a few months time. I didn’t think it was that bad, and people did brighten up after Ed Miliband’s speech on Tuesday, but you certainly did not feel comparisons with 1996 would have been accurate.
A big reason for any flatness that was around was Labour’s Scottish problem. Whilst almost everybody there was delighted that Scotland had voted no to independence, the feeling was coupled with one of fear about the outcome of next year’s general election, and in particular the effect of the Scottish National Party on their vote and seat share.
Two leading members of the ‘no’ campaign highlighted this feeling strongly. Jim Murphy MP noted that Labour had ‘allowed Scottish nationalism to grow over 25 years, comfortable in the feeling that they could “borrow their vote” in UK general elections’. Johann Lamont echoed those thoughts, saying that Scottish Labour had ignored Scottish voters in the past, and Labour leader Ed Miliband has noted that the party has ‘more to do‘.
The SNP’s surge in membership in recent days suggest that the party will fight the next general election with good resources and a mobilised activist base. Given the closeness of the next election, any seats that the SNP manage to gain from Labour could prove costly for Ed Miliband’s team.