Liberal Democrats’ forecast 2015 losses

The Election Forecast team have uploaded their individual seat forecasts for next year’s general election. They forecast that the Liberal Democrats have a 50% or great probability of losing the following 36 seats (ordered in probability of defeat):

  1. Brent Central
  2. Norwich South
  3. Bradford East
  4. Manchester Withington
  5. Solihull
  6. Burnley North West
  7. Somerton and Frome
  8. Taunton Deane
  9. Redcar
  10. Chippenham
  11. Argyll and Bute
  12. Birmingham Yardley
  13. St Austell & Newquay
  14. Wells
  15. Edinburgh West
  16. Mid Dorset and North Poole
  17. Gordon
  18. Hornsey and Wood Green
  19. West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
  20. Portsmouth South
  21. Southport
  22. Bristol West
  23. Brecon and Radnorshire
  24. North Devon
  25. Cheltenham
  26. East Dunbartonshire
  27. Kingston and Surbiton
  28. Cardiff Central
  29. Berwick-upon-Tweed
  30. St Ives
  31. North Cornwall
  32. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
  33. Colchester
  34. Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
  35. Eastbourne
  36. Carshalton and Wallington

Of those losses, 21 are predicted to fall to the Conservatives, 12 are predicted to fall to Labour, and 3 to the Scottish National Party. See the full results here. The forecast predicts no gains for the Liberal Democrats. For a look at what seats they might have a chance of winning, see the post I wrote a couple of months ago.

The overall seat prediction by the forecasting team leaves the Liberal Democrats with 23 seats, which would see a certain Lib Dem blogger running down Whitehall without any clothes on. 

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