The Election Forecast team have uploaded their individual seat forecasts for next year’s general election. They forecast that the Liberal Democrats have a 50% or great probability of losing the following 36 seats (ordered in probability of defeat):
- Brent Central
- Norwich South
- Bradford East
- Manchester Withington
- Solihull
- Burnley North West
- Somerton and Frome
- Taunton Deane
- Redcar
- Chippenham
- Argyll and Bute
- Birmingham Yardley
- St Austell & Newquay
- Wells
- Edinburgh West
- Mid Dorset and North Poole
- Gordon
- Hornsey and Wood Green
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
- Portsmouth South
- Southport
- Bristol West
- Brecon and Radnorshire
- North Devon
- Cheltenham
- East Dunbartonshire
- Kingston and Surbiton
- Cardiff Central
- Berwick-upon-Tweed
- St Ives
- North Cornwall
- Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
- Colchester
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
- Eastbourne
- Carshalton and Wallington
Of those losses, 21 are predicted to fall to the Conservatives, 12 are predicted to fall to Labour, and 3 to the Scottish National Party. See the full results here. The forecast predicts no gains for the Liberal Democrats. For a look at what seats they might have a chance of winning, see the post I wrote a couple of months ago.
The overall seat prediction by the forecasting team leaves the Liberal Democrats with 23 seats, which would see a certain Lib Dem blogger running down Whitehall without any clothes on.Â