Electoral forecasters are not sure what will happen next year. To some, a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome. To others, a Labour majority. Most point out the possibility of a hung parliament with either side as the largest party.

National opinion polls tell us something about how this might pan out, but they can only give us so much. This is not one election, but 650 small elections that will then give us a parliament. Of utmost importance will be those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010. Some will stick with the party. Others will switch to Labour, Conservative, UKIP, Green or one of the nationalist parties. Some will not vote. How many switch to which party, and in which constituency, will be crucial in deciding a number of marginals up and down the country.

The following Twitter exchange between Mike Smithson and the Electoral Forecast UK team summarises the debate well. Continue reading The importance of 2010 Lib Dem voters →