The Liberal Democrats launched their pre-manifesto this morning, after postponing it last week due to events in the middle-east. The announcement of Kate and William’s baby won’t have helped matters this morning, but those I doubt the coverage would have been so much more noticeable without it. Continue reading Lib Dem pre-manifesto launched
Category Archives: British politics
Liberal Democrats’ forecast 2015 losses
The Election Forecast team have uploaded their individual seat forecasts for next year’s general election. They forecast that the Liberal Democrats have a 50% or great probability of losing the following 36 seats (ordered in probability of defeat): Continue reading Liberal Democrats’ forecast 2015 losses
The importance of 2010 Lib Dem voters
Electoral forecasters are not sure what will happen next year. To some, a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome. To others, a Labour majority. Most point out the possibility of a hung parliament with either side as the largest party.
National opinion polls tell us something about how this might pan out, but they can only give us so much. This is not one election, but 650 small elections that will then give us a parliament. Of utmost importance will be those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010. Some will stick with the party. Others will switch to Labour, Conservative, UKIP, Green or one of the nationalist parties. Some will not vote. How many switch to which party, and in which constituency, will be crucial in deciding a number of marginals up and down the country.
The following Twitter exchange between Mike Smithson and the Electoral Forecast UK team summarises the debate well. Continue reading The importance of 2010 Lib Dem voters
In praise of… taking a break
Following my post last week on the idea of ‘busyness’ and my issues with it, the Guardian have posted a small posting on David Cameron’s right to a holiday.
Electoral Forecast (Hanretty, Lauderdale and Vivyan) (UPDATED)
Another electoral forecasting website has been set up, this time by Dr Chris Hanretty, Dr Benjamin Lauderdale and Dr Nick Vivyan. Their first prediction is as follows:
| Party | Lo | Votes | Hi | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 29.2% | 33.4% | 37.6% | -2.6% |
| Labour | 28.0% | 32.1% | 36.1% | 3.1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 11.5% | 14.6% | 18.0% | -8.4% |
| SNP | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Plaid Cymru | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Greens | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| UKIP | 6.8% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 6.3% |
| Other | 2.2% | 4.1% | 6.2% | -1.7% |
| Party | LoW | Seats | HiGH | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservatives | 243 | 299 | 360 | -7 |
| Labour | 246 | 304 | 353 | 46 |
| Liberal Democrats | 3 | 15 | 33 | -42 |
| SNP | 5 | 9 | 16 | 3 |
| Plaid Cymru | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Greens | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 |
| UKIP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Continue reading Electoral Forecast (Hanretty, Lauderdale and Vivyan) (UPDATED)
The saddest acknowledgement I’ve ever read
Quite a few photos have cropped up in my Twitter feed of cats and dogs interrupting work-at-home academics. It reminded me of the saddest acknowledgement I’ve ever read in an introduction to a book.
‘Lastly, a list of tributes would not be complete without a mention of my dear cat, whose company was so much appreciated during the writing of the book. She sat approvingly on many of its pages in draft, but sadly died, aged 19, just before it went to press’.
Taken from Russell, Meg (2005). Building New Labour: The Politics of Party Organisation. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.
The latest board game to bless my living room
What chance of a Liberal Democrat gain in 2015?
For the Liberal Democrats, next year’s general election is all about damage limitation. As Philip Cowley said in June:
As outlined in further detail here, the priority for the Liberal Democrats is no longer picking up 20% of the vote and second place in every constituency in the land. In the short term at least, there is no chance of that happening. The priority is to maintain support in those seats where they have MPs and resources.
The question at the top of the page might then seem a bit odd. What chance of a Liberal Democrat gain in 2015? Last month, Ladbrokes outlined five seats that they might have a chance of gaining: Montgomeryshire, Watford, Oxford West & Abingdon, Ashfield, and Maidstone & The Weald. I’d like to focus on one of them in particular (Oxford West & Abingdon), then add a couple more of my own: Harrogate & Knaresborough, and Winchester. Continue reading What chance of a Liberal Democrat gain in 2015?
Stephen Tall: The 21 areas where Labour and the Liberal Democrats agree
Constituency odds – an update
Back in April, I blogged about Ladbrokes’ decision to open betting markets on individual constituencies ahead of next year’s general election. I particularly pointed out four constituencies that might be especially interesting: Bath, Brighton Pavilion, Redcar and Wells. In this post, I’d like to give an update to see if there’s been much change in the last three months. Continue reading Constituency odds – an update