Last week, I wrote a piece for The Conversation on Matthew Oakeshott’s donations to Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green Party candidates.
Tag Archives: general election
A strange death of Liberal England?
Stephen Fisher from Oxford University has written an excellent blog this morning using British Election Study data, in which he outlines what it suggests about constituency variation in party performance. You can read it here.
In it, he discusses the declining vote share of the Liberal Democrats, stating that they ‘are clearly losing most in the seats where they started strongest and losing least where they started weakest’. As he rightly outlines, this is, in part, inevitable. The Liberal Democrats’ current polling share is down about 15 or 16 points compared with where it was in May 2010. In over 100 seats, the Lib Dems got less than 16% of the vote, meaning that they have to lose a greater percentage of vote share in other seats.
This leads Fisher to the following conclusion:
The implications for Liberal Democrat seats are straightforward. If they are indeed losing most heavily in the seats they are defending they are set to lose several more seats than national polls with uniform swing would predict.
A few thoughts in response to it.
- The data in the BES suggests, as have other polling companies, that Labour are set to be the biggest beneficiaries. They can only have so much of an impact on Lib Dem seats, given that it is the Conservatives who are in second place in 37 of the Lib Dems’ incumbent seats.
- Following on from above, there are a great many seats where the Lib Dems came second with a large share of the vote. In many of these seats, Lib Dem support in local elections has completely dropped off, whilst it has remained somewhat stronger in areas where they have MPs. It is perfectly possible that Lib Dems will lose a great share of the vote in 150-250 seats, but manage to hold on in a number of seats where they have MPs already.
- Fisher rightly recognises the importance of incumbency and local variation for the Lib Dems, but it is worth stating again. People’s responses, as outlined in polling by Michael Ashcroft, are much more positive for the Lib Dems when asked about constituency voting intention rather than national voting intention.
- Local variation might well damage the Conservatives too. In many of the seats that the Conservatives might hope to take from the Lib Dems, they might find UKIP splitting their vote enough that the Lib Dems can cling on. Again, polling by Ashcroft would suggest this is currently the case.
Fisher’s analysis is excellent, and will make uncomfortable reading for Lib Dem supporters. However, the points that have been made time and time again by various commentators about local variation remain, and the Lib Dems’ ability to make the most of it in 2015 will determine how many seats they have.
Academic posts on the Liberal Democrats this week
The Liberal Democrats held their annual conference this week. There has been a lot of media focus, of course, but also some academic coverage. Most of the main academic blogs have provided insightful articles on the party’s prospects at the next general election beyond. Here are all the ones I’ve come across:
Why so chipper, Lib Dems? Party gears to bounce back. By Emma Sanderson-Nash for The Conversation.
Lib Dems still eyeing the coalition prize. By Andrew Russell for Manchester University Blogs.
Little sign of life, but look closely and the Lib Dems can cling on. By Mark Bennister for The Conversation.
Clegg’s speech a hit with Lib Dem faithful – but will it be enough for voters? By Wyn Grant for The Conversation.
The Lib Dems – Surviving rather than thriving, but surviving all the same. By Craig Johnson (me…) for The Crick Centre.
Prior Liberal Democrat voters who are now undecided will be crucial for the party in the 2015 general election. By Kathryn Simpson for LSE Politics & Policy.
‘Do Not Forsake Me, Oh My Darling’ – Nick Clegg’s Conference Speech. By Andrew Scott Crines.
The Lib Dems: Surviving rather than thriving, but surviving all the same
Read my thoughts, for Sheffield University’s Crick Centre, on the Liberal Democrats following their conference in Glasgow this week.
http://www.crickcentre.org/blog/lib-dems-surviving-rather-thriving-surviving/
Michael Ashcroft Polling on Liberal Democrat marginals
This afternoon, Michael Ashcroft addressed the Conservative Party Conference, providing a host of individual seat polls of interest to them. Of course, many of these will also be of interest to the Liberal Democrats. The polls were each of 1000 people during the July-September period. They should be noted as a snapshot of the time, and not a snapshot of next May.
Continue reading Michael Ashcroft Polling on Liberal Democrat marginals
Labour Party Conference: The Scottish problem
I was at Labour Party Conference this week. Many journalists and commentators have noted how flat the conference felt, particularly for a party that will hope to be in government in just a few months time. I didn’t think it was that bad, and people did brighten up after Ed Miliband’s speech on Tuesday, but you certainly did not feel comparisons with 1996 would have been accurate.
A big reason for any flatness that was around was Labour’s Scottish problem. Whilst almost everybody there was delighted that Scotland had voted no to independence, the feeling was coupled with one of fear about the outcome of next year’s general election, and in particular the effect of the Scottish National Party on their vote and seat share.
Two leading members of the ‘no’ campaign highlighted this feeling strongly. Jim Murphy MP noted that Labour had ‘allowed Scottish nationalism to grow over 25 years, comfortable in the feeling that they could “borrow their vote” in UK general elections’. Johann Lamont echoed those thoughts, saying that Scottish Labour had ignored Scottish voters in the past, and Labour leader Ed Miliband has noted that the party has ‘more to do‘.
The SNP’s surge in membership in recent days suggest that the party will fight the next general election with good resources and a mobilised activist base. Given the closeness of the next election, any seats that the SNP manage to gain from Labour could prove costly for Ed Miliband’s team.
Lib Dem pre-manifesto launched
The Liberal Democrats launched their pre-manifesto this morning, after postponing it last week due to events in the middle-east. The announcement of Kate and William’s baby won’t have helped matters this morning, but those I doubt the coverage would have been so much more noticeable without it. Continue reading Lib Dem pre-manifesto launched
Liberal Democrats’ forecast 2015 losses
The Election Forecast team have uploaded their individual seat forecasts for next year’s general election. They forecast that the Liberal Democrats have a 50% or great probability of losing the following 36 seats (ordered in probability of defeat): Continue reading Liberal Democrats’ forecast 2015 losses
The importance of 2010 Lib Dem voters
Electoral forecasters are not sure what will happen next year. To some, a Conservative majority is the most likely outcome. To others, a Labour majority. Most point out the possibility of a hung parliament with either side as the largest party.
National opinion polls tell us something about how this might pan out, but they can only give us so much. This is not one election, but 650 small elections that will then give us a parliament. Of utmost importance will be those people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010. Some will stick with the party. Others will switch to Labour, Conservative, UKIP, Green or one of the nationalist parties. Some will not vote. How many switch to which party, and in which constituency, will be crucial in deciding a number of marginals up and down the country.
The following Twitter exchange between Mike Smithson and the Electoral Forecast UK team summarises the debate well. Continue reading The importance of 2010 Lib Dem voters
