Category Archives: News

Collaborative platform to facilitate engineering decision-making

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Researchers from CESER (Claire Walsh, Richard Dawson, Stephanie Glendinning, Vassilis Glenis) in collaboration with researchers from Centre for Knowledge Innovation Technology and Enterprise and Newcastle City Council have recently published a paper which introduces the concept of a ‘Decision Theatre’ and describes how this approach was tested by co-designing, with a range of stakeholders, two events to identify current vulnerabilities of the city of Newcastle upon Tyne to a storm event and to investigate the effectiveness of adaptation options to surface water flooding. Based on these ‘proof of concept’ events, CESER along with other researchers at Newcastle University are considering are more permanent research and engagement facility for exploring and understanding collaborative decision-making and public engagement.

Four interactive information screens presenting information about the storm as it unfolds

Walsh CL; Glendinning S; Dawson RJ; England K; Martin M; Watkins CL; Wilson, R; Glenis V; McLoughlin A; Parker D. 2013. Collaborative platform to facilitate engineering decision-making. Engineering Sustainability 166, ES2: 98-107.

The full paper can be downloaded at: HERE.

This paper is in a special issue of Engineering Sustainability on ‘Participatory Planning’ which is available on the journal’s website.

Richard Dawson appointed Associate Deputy Editor of Climatic Change

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Richard Dawson, CESER director, has been invited to join the editorial team of Climatic Change as an Associate Deputy Editor.

Climatic Change is one of the world’s leading environmental science journals.  It is an Interdisciplinary, International Journal Devoted to the Description, Causes and  implications of Climatic Change.

The journal’s interdisciplinary focus encourages researchers in any discipline, be it meteorology, anthropology, agricultural science, astronomy, biology, chemistry, physics, geography, policy analysis, economics, engineering, geology, ecology, or history of climate, to communicate the essence of their studies to people in other climate related disciplines and to interested non-disciplinarians, as well as to report on research in which the originality is in the combinations of (not necessarily original) work from several disciplines. The journal also includes editorial and book review sections and ‘Climatic Change Letters’ which offers a space for short articles announcing new findings of timely and compelling interest to researchers in climate-related disciplines.

 

Hayley Fowler selected to give Award Lecture at the British Science Festival

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Prof Hayley Fowler, CESER Researcher and Professor of Climate Change Impacts, has been chosen to give the Joseph Lister Award Lecture (Social sciences) at the British Science Festival which will be held in September 2013 in Newcastle upon Tyne. Hayley will talk about “Climate change, extreme rainfall and flooding: what is happening to our weather?”

There is currently much public interest in extreme weather and the perceived increase in heavy rainfall and flooding over the past decade which the media has blamed on global warming. But what is happening and what can we expect to happen in the future?

Extreme rainfall is increasing around the world. This lecture will discuss what causes different types of extreme flood events and whether this is increasing based on the latest evidence. It will also look at the role of ‘atmospheric rivers’ which bring large amounts of moisture and thus rainfall, causing flooding in the UK. ARs are water vapour rich, long narrow bands at least 2,000 km long and several hundred km wide – at any given time, four or five ARs in the atmosphere will carry 90% of moisture moving towards Poles. When water vapour is forced upwards (i.e. by meeting mountainous areas), this can lead to flash flooding.

The lecture will also examine the latest projections from climate models. This will include new results from Hayley’s research group which runs very high resolution climate models (using the UK Forecast Model) to try to predict how global warming might affect convective ‘thunderstorm’ type rainfall events which cause localised flash-floods. These generally happen in summer and appear to be increasing. Current climate models cannot resolve convective processes so we do not know whether these events will become more frequent/intense? The lecture will showcase new climate model simulations from the NERC-funded CONVEX project (ready in summer 2013).

Local as well as national case studies will be used to demonstrate the above, particularly given widespread flooding in the Newcastle region in 2012 (e.g. June 28th pluvial flood – extensive flooding in city centre and gridlock, 5th Aug pluvial flood and 24/25th September fluvial flood which affected Newburn, Morpeth and parts of Yorkshire), examining how our urban areas have increased in propensity for flooding.

The lecture will finish by examining how we might start to better manage and plan for these types of flood events, showcasing new ideas and modelling techniques from the Water Resources researchers in CESER: including the use of crowd sourcing techniques (using smart phone applications) to collect improved information on where floods occur. The lecture will demonstrate examples of where crowd sourcing has successfully led to improved modelling of flooded areas and flood depths for different rainfall events using a new modelling system called CityCat developed by CESER reserachers.

SINATRA: New NERC grant to understand flooding from intense rainfall

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The £2.7M SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) Project, funded by NERC, the Environment Agency and the UK Met Office under the Flooding From Intense Rainfall thematic programme, will start later in 2013. This large consortium project is led by Dr Hannah Cloke at Reading University and deputy director Prof Hayley Fowler in CESER.

SINATRA assembles a multidisciplinary team of world-leading experts from academia (Reading University, Bristol University, Newcastle University (CESER, CeG and Geography), Exeter University, Hull University, King’s College London), industry (Halcrow and JBA), and government (UK Met Office (UKMO) and their joint Flood Forecasting Centre (with the Environment Agency), the British Geological Survey (BGS), the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) and the Cabinet Office’s Natural Hazards Partnership.)

SINATRA aims to advance scientific understanding of the drivers, thresholds, and impacts of flooding from intense rainfall in ‘at-risk’ UK catchments and to translate this small-scale process understanding into new open source model architectures and parameterisations to enable the development of decision-support tools, improving the capacity of forecasting agencies to deliver impacts-based warnings and predictions needed for managing Flooding From Intense Rainfall.

Contributions from CESER include expertise in crowd-sourcing (Dr Geoff Parkin and Mr David Alderson), hydrodynamic modelling (Dr Vedrana Kutija and Dr Qiuhua Liang), laser scanning (Dr Pauline Miller), atmospheric precursors (Prof Hayley Fowler and Dr Stephen Blenkinsop), historical flood reconstruction (Dr David Archer, visiting fellow), risk assessment (Prof Enda O’Connell, Dr John Ewen and Dr Greg O’Donnell) and rapid field response (Dr Andy Large and Prof Andy Russell, Geography).

The year Britain flooded

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Last night Channel 4 broadcast a programme on flooding in Britain in 2012. 

http://www.channel4.com/programmes/the-year-britain-flooded/4od

Much of the programme focussed on recent floods in the Northeast, where CESER researchers have been applying their expertise in urban flood modelling and data acquistion in Newcastle and other cities to look at the Toon Monsoon.

The programme also explored the sensitivity of slopes to extreme events, another area CESER have extensive experience – including their full scale test embankment.

CESER supports the EA in their new role coordinating the development of the UK’s climate predictions

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The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), first developed in 2009, provide climate information designed to help those needing to plan how they will adapt to a changing climate. The data is focused on the UK, and is free of charge.

Past and current global greenhouse gas emissions mean that the world is already committed to some level of future climate change, so adaptation to address the resulting consequences is important. The Projections are presented for three different future scenarios representing High, Medium and Low greenhouse gas emissions.

No climate model can give a single definite answer to what the future will look like, instead the projections are based on the best available scientific evidence and understanding to help people to make sensible and informed decisions for the future.

In October 2011, the Environment Agency took over the management of UKCP09 as part of its Climate Ready support service. This role was previously provided by UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP). The Environment Agency is working in partnership with the Met Office Hadley Centre, British Atmospheric Data Centre and the Universities of Newcastle and East Anglia to provide a continuous service, including technical assistance through the UKCP09 Helpdesk.

Newcastle University’s Professor Chris Kilsby (Professor of Hydrology and Climate Change), supported by CESER academics, plays a key role “maintaining and enhancing the Weather Generator functionality of the projections and providing advice on future developments in climate scenarios for the UK”.

The Environment Agency’s Climate Ready support service provides advice and guidance to businesses, public sector and other organisations on adapting to a changing climate.  The aim is to increase the resilience to climate risks of organisations in key sectors across England.

CESER Research featured on BBC Radio 4 Today programme

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Prize winning research by CESER Director Richard Dawson (see article here) was featured on BBC Radio 4 in a short piece that remembers the 1953 flood event – 60 years on.

Professor Robert Nicholls, long time CESER collaborator and co-author of the research, describes some of the research and the difficulties associated with managing a dynamic coastline.

The featurette starts at 1:21:08-1:26:00 (with a later interview of 1953 survivors)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b01q95ry/Today_31_01_2013/

Keynote speech at Futurs Urbains conference

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CESER Director, Richard Dawson, delivered a keynote speech at the international Futurs Urbains conference in Paris this week.  Richard delivered a talk that introduced CESER’s innovative Urban Integrated Assessment Facility and then reflected on lessons learned in London and Durban on the process of integrated modelling.  This included consideration of the technical challenges of modelling, the extent to which they meet policy needs, role of stakeholders in model development and application, barriers to their uptake and the value of and effort required for integration.

One key issue for teams embarking upon an integrated assessment must realise is that it does not provide all the answers or ‘design variables’ BUT it does stimulate the conversations and interactions that are needed to drive forward climate adaptation and mitigation agendas.

Although integrated assessment, in urban areas and elsewhere, comes at extra effort, Richard concluded that it was worthwhile – indeed essential for many of the world’s sustainability challenges because it enables teams to develop a collective understanding of policies concerning multiple pressures, urban functions and stakeholders.  Of course, there remain many challenges – not least transferability of these sophisticated modelling systems and communicating their results to wide audiences.

Better soil management is key to improving our resilience to extreme floods and droughts

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Dr Paul Quinn speaks to BBC Radio 4 about Newcastle University’s efforts to improve our resilience to the extreme weather events of 2012

Senior Lecturer in Catchment Hydrology and CESER researcher, Dr Paul Quinn was invited to take part in a special programme for BBC Radio 4’s Farming Today on extreme weather conditions in 2012. The programme aired on Jan 2nd, and is currently available via the BBC iPlayer.

Paul was involved, alongside Farming Consultant Lindsay Hargreaves and a number of farmers from across the country, to discuss their experiences and understanding of drought and floods last year, and consider what 2013 might bring. The unusually dry winter (in England and Wales) preceding Spring 2012 led to a severe drought in the first months of the year and the resulting hosepipe ban in March. Across the border in Scotland, however, was a very different situation, with 2011 being the wettest on record for 100 years and no signs of let up into 2012, where some parts actually received less than average rainfall for the latter part of the year!

In England, the hosepipe ban became a somewhat ironic prelude to what turned out to be the wettest summer since records began, and the accompanying cold temperatures alongside the sheer amount and longevity of rainfall completely devastated crops nationwide including cereals, potatoes and fruit. Individual farmers speaking on the BBC programme reported losses of between 15% (potatoes) to 90% (apples) on the previous year, not to mention the knock-on effects of such a late, low quality harvest; namely barns full of grain blocking cattle coming in for winter and further wet/icy conditions making removal of that grain impossible.

The solution for farmers to such extreme weather (which we know under conditions of climate change will most likely increase), is better soil management, according to Paul. He explains that our soil is generally in a poor state, so does not store as much water as it used to. This is due to overuse and the fact that modern farming practices often don’t allow the soil to function properly. Paul, alongside other members of CESER and the NIReS Terrestrial Theme at Newcastle University, believe that it is possible to create a climate resilient landscape that results in positive relationships between food production, soil and water management, biodiversity and habitat protection, pollution reduction and even carbon storage. This requires collaboration between specialists in different fields (pardon the pun!), something which is being made possible through CESER and the NIReS Terrestrial Theme, and will result in more opportunities for research into catchments and landscapes with multiple functions that are more resilient to the changes in climate that we are witnessing in the UK but also globally, as described on the programme.